Trump era vs. Reagan era

Both pre and now post Donald Trump's election an often mentioned narrative was and still is being pushed suggesting that his presidency will usher in an era similar to the 1980’s when Ronald Reagan was the president. 

Fed bogey may change

Research work done by economists at IMF as well as work done by Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius are beginning to suggest that the Federal Reserve may be planning to change the threshold for its Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) from their original 6.5% unemployment rate and 2.5% inflation rate to perhaps a lower rate of unemployment such as 6.0% to even 5.5% rate.

How The Economic Machine Works

In this video Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio explains how in his view the economy is like a machine.   Suggesting that many people don’t understand it – or they don’t agree on how it works – and this has led to a lot of needless economic suffering.

Kevin Warsh on Federal Reserve

Informative comments by former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh on what is likely to take place when the Fed unwinds its current bond-buying program, but also highlighting the role of a central banker in an economy. (Flashplayer is required to watch the video clip)

Affordable Care Act Taxes

The Affordable Care Act aka Obamacare that was passed into law in 2010 and recently affirmed by the Supreme Court came with an additional tax that will go into effect starting on Jan 2013.

Nash equilibrium

Whether President Obama’s recent job plan aka fiscal stimulus plan will be passed in its entirety or passed partially is still not certain, but what is certain and factually supported given the work of Reinhart and Rogoff is that solving or getting out of this malaise or hangover from our recent credit bubble will take more than just several years.

Joy of Cash

With countries like Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain facing a burdensome amount of public (government) debt the risk of having a sovereign debt default or restructuring which are fancy ways of saying bondholders will lose all or good portion of their money seems increasingly likely … especially in the case of Greece.

Current Investing Paradigm

The financial crisis in 2008 effected many different facets of global economy one of which was to increase the uncertainty and risk in various investment decisions.

Reference Scenario

Here is an excerpt from an excellent article in Institutional Investor magazine written by James Shinn highlighting the four key events that will determine the near term direction in financial markets:

Round Trip Fallacy

Often so many of the news items or opinions we read or hear – especially those with some basic data are fraught with what can be referred to as ‘Round-trip Fallacy’.

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