Bonds

Chase for Performance is On

The chase for performance is on.  Since this year’s presidential election there has been a meltup in the stock market and a meltdown in the bond market.  

Trump era vs. Reagan era

Both pre and now post Donald Trump's election an often mentioned narrative was and still is being pushed suggesting that his presidency will usher in an era similar to the 1980’s when Ronald Reagan was the president. 

Investment Planning for an Uncertain World

Chances are good that if you turn on the prime time news on any given day or pull up your favorite newspaper on your iPad one of the top stories will relate to emerging risks around the world.

Active vs. Passive Investing

Institutional money managers running various mutual funds or hedge funds are for most part paid to apply their knowledge to pick investments that will beat their benchmarks by identifying, analyzing and selecting the next winners from the wide universe

Managing Investment Risks

In my opinion, it is impossible to predict future stock market returns. Investment models can produce hypothetical returns but they can’t account for future events. So, in my opinion, investors who manage their investments based on market performance or what they perceive as opportunities for better returns have very little control over the outcome.

Outcome or Process

Here is an excerpt from a weekly piece Barry Ritholtz writes for Washington Post:

Has this ever happened to you?

Skill Versus Luck in Investing

Shift from QE to forward guidance

In case you missed it Kevin Warsh was on CNBC this morning. Again he made some great points including highlighting one of the downfalls of QE which he suggests has led to a misallocation and “malinvestment” of capital as oppose to hyperinflation which many doomsdayers have been harping on since the beginning of Fed’s Zero Interest Rate and QE policies.

Fed bogey may change

Research work done by economists at IMF as well as work done by Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius are beginning to suggest that the Federal Reserve may be planning to change the threshold for its Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) from their original 6.5% unemployment rate and 2.5% inflation rate to perhaps a lower rate of unemployment such as 6.0% to even 5.5% rate.

How The Economic Machine Works

In this video Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio explains how in his view the economy is like a machine.   Suggesting that many people don’t understand it – or they don’t agree on how it works – and this has led to a lot of needless economic suffering.

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